How certain can we be about NGFS Climate Scenarios?
How Certain Can We Be About NGFS Climate Scenarios?, by Alex Pui, Sebastian EV Werner, Gireesh Shrimali, and Motoshi Tomita This paper investigates uncertainty in NGFS climate scenario projections across scenario, model, and vintage dimensions, with a particular focus on how revisions to initial conditions and recalibration across successive releases affect projected outcomes. Drawing on 254 variables […]