Net Zero Transition Plans

Effective, credible transition plans are strategies for addressing transition risk and for getting to net-zero emissions. These would eventually drive provision of financial products and services. The Net Zero Transition Plans project, based at the University of Oxford, focuses on the provision of tools and data for assessing credibility of transition plans.

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In the first phase of the project (2022-23), we focused on developing a deeper understanding of transition plans and finance across four emissions-intensive sectors: oil & gas, power generation, steel, and aviation. The research focused on Identifying key aspects, suggesting ideal solutions, providing a comparative analysis of existing solutions, and setting up future deep dives.

In the second phase of the project (2023-24), we are now focusing on some of deep dives identified in Phase 1, namely: the role of external dependencies in credible transition plans, using asset-level data to assess credibility of transition plans, investigating the impact of credible transition plans on the cost of capital, and designing sustainability-linked finance products using transition plans.

Beyond Phase 2 (2025+), we plan to continue engaging in specific questions of relevance to credible transition plans, established via continuous dialogues with our stakeholders, including policymakers, regulators, financial institutions, corporations, and non-profit

Balancing simplicity and complexity through corporate emissions benchmarking

Standardized quantitative emissions benchmarking is essential for corporate climate accountability, yet recent literature has critiqued this approach. We argue for structured pluralism with budget compliance — balancing methodological flexibility while preserving the disciplining power of carbon budgets.

National Net-Zero Legislation and Corporate Asset Allocations

This study explores how different legislative approaches influence corporate investment behaviours
from a microeconomic perspective

Credibility Beyond Control: How External Dependencies Shape the Credibility of Corporate Transition Plans

This paper explores how external dependencies—factors outside a company’s direct control—shape
the credibility of corporate transition plans (CTPs).

Assessing the Compatibility of Transition Plans with CBDR-RC using Asset-Level Data

This study develops a comprehensive framework operationalizing Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) at the corporate level through CS-factors—simple multipliers that
transform complex equity calculations into operational corporate assessment tool

The economics of the critical minerals value chain and climate policy

Minerals-rich economies must balance climate goals with industrial development. We present a model in which policy timing and credibility shape outcomes along the mining–refining–cleantech chain.

Climate transition finance metrics effectiveness-an industry perspective

This study systematically examines TFMs reported by some of the largest global financial institutions – including banks, insurers, asset owners, and asset managers – and conducts a cross-industry global survey with 219 practitioners to assess perceptions of TFM effectiveness and data .

Climate Transition Plans' Assessment in Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Evidence from Airlines

This study introduces a correlation-based scoring framework to evaluate airline transition plans using data from 84 airlines, representing 75% of industry emissions. Implementation strategies for new aircraft technologies and foundational climate targets show the strongest associations with emissions reductions.

Assessing Corporate Emissions Reduction Targets Against National Transition Plans

This paper by Dr Marcin Borsuk and Dr Gireesh Shrimali investigates how climate-related transition risks influence the creditworthiness of non-financial Indian firms. It shows that higher carbon emissions significantly increase credit risks, and impacts vary by firms’ financial health, ESG practices, investment strategies and physical climate risk exposure.

Assessing Corporate Transition Plans using a Production Asset-Based Planning Approach

A novel open-source methodology for assessing the credibility of corporate transition plans based on asset-level data to estimate CO2 emission trajectories: the production asset-based planning approach (APA).

Sustainability-Linked Bonds: Modelling for Sustainability Performance

Gireesh Shrimali (CGFI/University of Oxford) and Jose Resendiz (University of Oxford) propose and test a valuation model for sustainability-linked bonds.

Corporate net zero transition and financing cost: Evidence of impact from global energy and utilities sectors

Xiaoyan Zhou, Rachel Williams and CGFI’s Gireesh Shrimali (all University of Oxford) study whether net zero transition (NZT) find that firms with higher levels of overall NZT disclosure experience lower cost of debt in the loan market.

A framework for assessing and managing dependencies in corporate transition plans

This perspective paper introduces the concept of transition plan dependencies.

Enhancing Comparability and Credibility of Transition Plans and Transition Risk Assessment with Standardized Net Zero Scenarios

A policy brief co-authored by CGFI’s Gireesh Shrimali on net zero scenarios for transition plan and risk assessments, including recommendations for decision makers.

Emission and Technology Pathways in the Shipping Sector

This Feb 2024 discussion paper compares leading emission pathways for shipping and their
underlying technology-policy mixes to identify benchmarks for the assessment of the credibility and feasibility of transition plans in the sector.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Aviation Sector

This study introduces a correlation-based scoring framework to evaluate airline transition plans using data from 84 airlines, representing 75% of industry emissions.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Oil and Gas Sector

In this paper, we review how the TPT Framework, CDP’s climate change questionnaire, and CA100+ disclosure and alignment assessment support the disclosure of elements that are relevant to assess the credibility of a transition plan.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Power Sector

This paper reviews the existing transition disclosure practices and guidelines for transforming global electricity generation. It explores feasible transition pathways, with a focus on key levers that can help achieve a net zero transition for the power sector.